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Research on the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 EpidemicsBased on the Poisson Regression Model and the Attention Allocation(PDF)

《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

Issue:
2021年01期
Page:
6-12
Research Field:
·数学·
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Research on the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 EpidemicsBased on the Poisson Regression Model and the Attention Allocation
Author(s):
Tang Li1; Zhen Dong1; Li Qian2
(1.School of Philosophy and Government,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)(2.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)
Keywords:
COVID-19; Poisson regression model; attention theory
PACS:
O213
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2021.01.002
Abstract:
Through two different methods,we quantify the efficacy of the control interventions of COVID-19 epidemics in China. Firstly,we propose a Poisson regression model including multiple environmental factors,and fit the model to real data. We find that the environmental factors are negatively related to the COVID-19 epidemics,while the control intervention was ranked as the first one,supporting the remarkable effectiveness of the interventions by the Chinese government. In parallel,we collect 173 copies of policy texts related to the control of COVID-19 by the national government,carry out the text analysis to quantify the attention allocation,find that the allocation of attention includes four dimensions,i.e. Epidemic Interruption,Livelihood Security,Economic Development and Government Supervision. We proved that the proportion of the four dimensions of policies at different stages of the epidemic and their effectiveness for controlling the epidemics are different.

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Last Update: 2021-03-15