[1]崔安邦,徐 都,王重阳,等.人类活动和气候变化对中国原麝(Moschus moschiferus)适宜分布的影响研究[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2025,48(06):79-89.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2025.06.009]
　Cui Anbang,Xu Du,Wang Chongyang,et al.Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Suitable Distribution of Siberian Musk Deer(Moschus moschiferus)in China[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2025,48(06):79-89.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2025.06.009]
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人类活动和气候变化对中国原麝(Moschus moschiferus)适宜分布的影响研究()

《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

卷:
48
期数:
2025年06期
页码:
79-89
栏目:
生态学
出版日期:
2025-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Impact of Human Activities and Climate Change on the Suitable Distribution of Siberian Musk Deer(Moschus moschiferus)in China
文章编号:
1001-4616(2025)06-0079-11
作者:
崔安邦1; 徐 都1; 王重阳2; 费雨露2; 张天宇1; 3; 李文博1; 3
(1.安徽大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽 合肥 230601)
(2.安徽大学生命科学学院,安徽 合肥 230601)
(3.安徽省黄山生物多样性与短尾猴行为生态学国际联合研究中心,安徽 合肥 230601)
Author(s):
Cui Anbang1; Xu Du1; Wang Chongyang2; Fei Yulu2; Zhang Tianyu1; 3; Li Wenbo1; 3
(1.School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
(2.School of Life Sciences,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
(3.International Collaborative Research Center for Huangshan Biodiversity and Tibetan Macaque Behavioral Ecology,Hefei 230601,China)
关键词:
原麝; MaxEnt模型; 人类活动; 气候变化; 物种分布
Keywords:
Moschus moschiferus; MaxEnt; human activities; climate change; species distribution
分类号:
Q958.2
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2025.06.009
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
人类活动和气候变化影响物种生存和分布,掌握物种适宜生境在空间上的分布特征,并准确评估栖息地的适宜性,对于开展物种保护工作至关重要. 原麝(Moschus moschiferus)因其具有药用价值,历史上被大量捕杀,加之当前气候变化和人类活动加剧,导致该物种面临严峻的生存威胁. 本研究采用物种分布模型(MaxEnt)整合最新的人类活动和气候变化及原麝分布数据(189个分布位点),对其可能受到的人类活动和气候变化的威胁因素、适宜分布区和未来分布变化趋势进行研究. 结果表明:(1)保护区面积(PA)和国内生产总值(GDP)相对贡献率较高,分别为53.8%和23.7%. 其中,GDP呈负效应,说明原麝偏好人口密度(PD)低和人类活动干扰较弱的区域.(2)气温季节性变化(Bio4,29.0%)、DEM(24.1%)、NDVI(19.2%)为贡献率较高的自然因子,对原麝的影响均呈峰型. 原麝适宜性先和植被覆盖度呈正相关,在植被覆盖程度为0.6时适宜性最高(>0.6); 平均温度日较差(Bio2)在10～12 ℃且气温季节性变化(Bio 4)在1 200～1 400时,为原麝生存的最适气候条件; 海拔近1 000 m时,原麝栖息地适宜性较高(>0.6).(3)当前气候条件下原麝主要分布在河北、黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、内蒙古、山西、陕西、新疆等地,其高适宜栖息地面积为1.53×105 km2,中适宜栖息地面积为2.65×105 km2,低适宜栖息地面积为5.96×105 km2.(4)未来气候下原麝的适宜区均收缩,向西迁移趋势明显. 低辐射强迫情景(SSP1-2.6)下,原麝适宜区向高纬度地区扩张,高适宜栖息地面积呈现收缩(2030s为4.58×104 km2,2050s为6.18×104 km2,2070s为7.26×104 km2). 在高辐射胁迫情景(SSP5-8.5)下,在2030s、2050s、2070s高适宜区面积分别减少4.41×104 km2、12.38×104 km2和13.38×104 km2. 适宜栖息地在东北三省呈现出极其显著的收缩. 鉴于植被覆盖、保护区范围、温度和降雨量仍然是影响当前和未来原麝适宜分布的重要因子,因此本研究认为持续加强森林保护计划和国家公园建设以及倡导节能减排仍然是保护原麝的重要举措.
Abstract:
Human activities and climate change critically influence species survival and distribution. Understanding the spatial patterns of suitable habitats and accurately assessing habitat suitability are fundamental for effective species conservation. The Siberian Musk Deer(Moschus moschiferus),heavily hunted for medicinal use and further threatened by intensified human activities and climate change,faces severe survival risks. This study integrated the latest human activity and climate data with 189 Musk Deer occurrence records using the MaxEnt species distribution model to evaluate threat factors,identify suitable habitats,and project future distribution trends. Key findings include:(1)Protected area coverage(PA),and GDP showed the highest relative contributions,with relative contributions of 53.8% and 23.7% respectively. The negative effect of GDP indicates that Musk Deer prefer areas with low population density(PD)and minimal human disturbance.(2)Temperature seasonality(Bio4,29.0%),elevation(DEM,24.1%),and NDVI(19.2%)were predominant natural drivers,exhibiting bell-shaped relationships with Musk Deer distribution.The suitability of habitats for Musk Deer was positively correlated with vegetation cover. Optimal suitability occurred at NDVI>0.6,elevation near 1,000 m,mean diurnal temperature range(Bio2)of 10-12 ℃,and temperature seasonality(Bio4)of 1 200-1 400.(3)Current high-suitability habitats(1.53×105 km2)are primarily distributed in Hebei,Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Inner Mongolia,Shanxi,Shaanxi,and Xinjiang,with medium(2.65×105 km2)and low suitability areas(5.96×105 km2)spanning broader regions.(4)Future projections under climate change indicate habitat contraction with westward shifts. Under the low-emission scenario(SSP1-2.6),high-suitability areas contracted(4.58×104 km2 by 2030s,6.18×104 km2 by 2050s,7.26×104 km2 by 2070s)but expanded toward higher latitudes. The high-emission scenario(SSP5-8.5)caused severe reductions in high-suitability habitats,with losses of 4.41×104 km2(2030s),12.38×104 km2(2050s),and 13.38×104 km2(2070s),particularly in Northeast China. Given that vegetation cover,protected area extent,temperature,and precipitation remain key factors affecting the current and future suitable distribution of Musk Deer,this study deems ongoing efforts in forest conservation and national park development,along with promoting energy-saved and emission-reduction,as crucial for Musk Deer protection.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2025-04-22.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(32201263).
通讯作者:李文博,博士(后),讲师,研究方向:行为生态学,保护生物学. E-mail:lwb@ahu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-12-20