[1]洪兆萍,杜秀丽.ARFIMA模型参数贝叶斯估计的渐近性质(英文)[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2008,31(02):16-22.
　Hong Zhaoping,Du Xiuli.Asymptotic Properties of Parametric Bayesian Estimation in ARFIMA Models[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2008,31(02):16-22.
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ARFIMA模型参数贝叶斯估计的渐近性质(英文)()
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《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

卷:
第31卷
期数:
2008年02期
页码:
16-22
栏目:
数学
出版日期:
2008-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Asymptotic Properties of Parametric Bayesian Estimation in ARFIMA Models
作者:
洪兆萍;杜秀丽;
南京师范大学数学与计算机科学学院, 江苏南京210046
Author(s):
Hong Zhaoping; Du Xiuli
School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210046,China
关键词:
贝叶斯方法;  ARFIMA模型;  后验分布;  渐近性质
Keywords:
Bayes ian m ethods;  ARFIMA models;  poster io r d istr ibution;  asym ptotic prope rties
分类号:
O212.8
摘要:
首先根据贝叶斯定理得到ARFIMA模型参数的后验边缘分布,并选择后验边缘分布的众数作为参数的估计值.参照季节性ARFIMA模型的极大似然估计的渐近性质的证明思路,证明了模型参数的贝叶斯估计具有相合性、有效性和渐近正态性.最后,对参数的贝叶斯估计方法的大样本性质进行仿真模拟,结果表明当时间序列样本足够大时,参数的估计值越来越接近于真实值.
Abstract:
Them arg inal po ster io r distr ibution of the param eter in theARFIMA m ode ls is presen ted by Bayes theo rem and the mode o f them arg inal posterior d istr ibu tion is choosed as the estim ator. Then, fo llow ed the analysis of the asympoto tic properties of max imum likelihood estim a tion fo r the seasonal ARFIMA m ode ls, the cons istency, e fficiency and asympto-t ic norma lity o f the Bayesian estima tor are prov ed. Fina lly, large sam ple perform ance o f the Bayesian estim ates is ex amined by sim ulations. It is shown that the estim ates behave we ll when the sam ple size is large enough.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
Corresponding autho r: H ong Zhaop ing, teach ing ass istan t, m ajored in fin ancia l statistics. E-m ail:zphong2002@ yahoo. com. cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2013-05-05