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Forecasting Model of Short-Term PM2.5 ConcentrationBased on Deep Learning
赵文芳12林润生2唐 伟3周 勇3
(1.北京城市气象研究院,北京 100089)(2.北京市气象信息中心,北京 100089)(3.中国气象局发展研究中心,北京 100081)
Zhao Wenfang12Lin Runsheng2Tang Wei3Zhou Yong3
(1.Institute of Urban Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100089,China)(2.Beijing Meteorological Information Center,Beijing Meteorological Bureau,Beijing 100089,China)(3.Development and Research Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)
forecast for PM2.5 concentrationmachine learninglong short term memorydeep learningconvolutional neural network
为了提高PM2.5浓度短期预报的准确率,解决现有PM2.5浓度短期预报准确率不高的问题,提出了一种基于卷积神经网络和长短时记忆的深度学习预报测型. 首先,综合考虑气温、相对湿度、降水量、风力、能见度等多种气象要素,综合分析气象要素与PM2.5浓度相关性. 其次,利用PM2.5浓度数据、气象站点观测数据和气象要素网格实况分析数据进行融合处理,生成用于训练和测试的时空序列数据,并使用卷积神经网络和长短时记忆网络获取时空特征. 通过大量实验确定模型中关键参数,然后利用最优参数建立预测模型. 最后,使用模型对PM2.5未来24 h浓度进行预测,并与支持向量机、业务中的预报模型进行对比. 实验结果表明,相比其他机器学习方法和预报方法,卷积神经网络和长短时记忆相结合的预测方法能有效提高PM2.5浓度未来24 h预测精度,并具有较高的泛化能力.
In order to improve the accuracy of PM2.5 concentration forecast in Beijing Meteorological Bureau,a deep learning prediction model based on convolutional neural network(CNN)and long short term memory neural network(LSTM)was proposed. Firstly,the feature vectors extraction was carried out by using the correlation analysis technique from meteorological data such as temperature,wind,relative humidity,precipitation,visibility and atmospheric pressure. Secondly,taking into account the fact that PM2.5 concentration was significantly affected by surrounding meteorological impact factors,meteorological grid analysis data were novel involved into the model,as well as the historical PM2.5 concentration data and meteorological observation data of the present station. Spatiotemporal sequence data were generated from these data after integrated processing. Highlevel spatiotemporal features were extracted through the combination of the CNN and LSTM. Finally,future 24-hour prediction of PM2.5 concentration was made by the model. The comparison among the accuracy of this optimized model,support vector machine(SVM)and existing PM2.5 forecast system is performed to evaluate their performance. The results show that the proposed CNN-LSTM model performs better than SVM and current operational models in Beijing Meteorological Bureau,which has effectively improved the prediction accuracy of PM2.5 concentration for different time predictions scales in the next 24 hours.


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收稿日期:2019-07-05.基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41575156)、中国气象局软科学研究重点课题(2019ZDIANXM19). 通讯联系人:唐伟,博士,高级工程师,研究方向:气象数据分析、模式识别、深度学习. E-mail:weitang@cma.gov.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-09-30