点击复制
养老产业与旅游产业融合发展的系统动力学仿真研究(
)
《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]
- 卷:
-
49
- 期数:
-
2026年02期
- 页码:
-
1-10
- 栏目:
-
地理学
- 出版日期:
-
2026-04-10
文章信息/Info
- Title:
-
System Dynamics Simulation Study on the Integrated Development of the Elderly Care Industry and the Tourism Industry
- 文章编号:
-
1001-4616(2026)02-0001-10
- 作者:
-
陈雪钧; 袁梦灵
-
重庆交通大学旅游与传媒学院,重庆 400074
- Author(s):
-
Chen Xuejun; Yuan Mengling
-
School of Tourism and Media,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China
-
- 关键词:
-
- Keywords:
-
- 分类号:
-
F590
- DOI:
-
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2026.02.001
- 文献标志码:
-
A
- 摘要:
-
养老产业与旅游产业的融合发展是一个复杂的动态过程,其良性发展面临诸多挑战. 本文将养老产业与旅游产业融合系统划分为需求、供给、中介和支持4个子系统,构建系统动力学模型,以老年人口数、直接就业人数、养老旅游产业收入及GDP作为检验变量,通过仿真模拟验证模型有效性,并借助17个核心指标模拟系统融合过程及外部环境的影响. 通过调节产业投资占比、科学技术支出占比、文旅体传媒支出占比、公共安全支出占比、交通运输支出占比、老年福利支出占比、卫生健康支出占比、科学教育支出占比及生态环境支出占比等关键参数,对比分析了自然演化模式与政府调控主导、产业投资主导、市场需求主导及协同发展融合4种模式的差异. 研究结果表明:市场需求、产业投资和政策调控是推动两产业融合的关键因素,协同发展融合模式是实现系统整体最优的有效路径. 本文为养老产业与旅游产业融合发展提供了多方面的提升策略.
- Abstract:
-
The integrated development of the elderly care industry and the tourism industry is a complex dynamic process facing numerous challenges to its healthy progression. This paper divides the integration system of these two industries into four subsystems:demand, supply, intermediation, and support. A system dynamics model is constructed, utilizing the elderly population, direct employment figures, revenue from the elderly tourism industry, and GDP as validation variables. The model's validity is verified through simulation, and the integration process along with the impact of the external environment are simulated using 17 core indicators. By adjusting the proportions of industrial investment, science and technology expenditure, culture/tourism/sports/media expenditure, public security expenditure, transportation expenditure, elderly welfare expenditure, health expenditure, scientific education expenditure, and ecological environment expenditure, this paper comparatively analyzes the differences between the natural evolution mode and four other modes:government regulation-led, industrial investment-led, market demand-led, and coordinated development and integration. The results indicate that market demand, industrial investment, and policy regulation are key drivers promoting the integration of the two industries. The coordinated development and integration mode proves to be the most effective path for achieving overall system optimization. This paper provides multi-faceted improvement strategies for the integrated development of the elderly care and tourism industries.
更新日期/Last Update:
2026-04-10