[1]唐 丽,甄 东,李 倩.基于泊松回归模型和注意力配置理论的新冠疫情防控研究[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2021,44(01):6-12.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2021.01.002]
　Tang Li,Zhen Dong,Li Qian.Research on the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 EpidemicsBased on the Poisson Regression Model and the Attention Allocation[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2021,44(01):6-12.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2021.01.002]
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基于泊松回归模型和注意力配置理论的新冠疫情防控研究()
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《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

卷:
第44卷
期数:
2021年01期
页码:
6-12
栏目:
·数学·
出版日期:
2021-03-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 EpidemicsBased on the Poisson Regression Model and the Attention Allocation
文章编号:
1001-4616(2021)01-0006-07
作者:
唐 丽1; 甄 东1; 李 倩2
(1.陕西师范大学哲学与政府管理学院,陕西 西安 710119)(2.西安交通大学数学与统计学院,陕西 西安 710049)
Author(s):
Tang Li1; Zhen Dong1; Li Qian2
(1.School of Philosophy and Government,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)(2.School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China)
关键词:
新冠肺炎; 泊松回归模型; 注意力理论
Keywords:
COVID-19; Poisson regression model; attention theory
分类号:
O213
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2021.01.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于两种方法量化我国新冠疫情防控措施的有效性,实现交叉验证. 首先,综合考虑温度、湿度、风速、压强等环境因素,提出一个泊松回归模型,并拟合实际数据校准模型. 得出环境因素对新冠疫情有显著的负影响,而防控措施影响最大,验证了我国防控措施成效显著. 同时,基于中央层面有关新冠疫情防控的173份政策文本,运用文本分析,量化疫情防控中的注意力配置,得出其注意力配置包括疫情阻断、民生保障、经济发展以及政府监管4个向度,各向度政策在疫情不同阶段占比和对疫情防控的有效性有不同呈现.
Abstract:
Through two different methods,we quantify the efficacy of the control interventions of COVID-19 epidemics in China. Firstly,we propose a Poisson regression model including multiple environmental factors,and fit the model to real data. We find that the environmental factors are negatively related to the COVID-19 epidemics,while the control intervention was ranked as the first one,supporting the remarkable effectiveness of the interventions by the Chinese government. In parallel,we collect 173 copies of policy texts related to the control of COVID-19 by the national government,carry out the text analysis to quantify the attention allocation,find that the allocation of attention includes four dimensions,i.e. Epidemic Interruption,Livelihood Security,Economic Development and Government Supervision. We proved that the proportion of the four dimensions of policies at different stages of the epidemic and their effectiveness for controlling the epidemics are different.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-10-18.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(11701442)、陕西省社科界2020年重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z089).
通讯作者:甄东,博士,副教授,研究方向:政府政策管理创新方向的研究. E-mail:zhendong@snnu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-03-15