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Grey Markov Forecasting for Real Time Traffic Volume(PDF)

《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

Issue:
2009年02期
Page:
41-45
Research Field:
物理学
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Grey Markov Forecasting for Real Time Traffic Volume
Author(s):
Zhang Yi; Gao Rong
Optoelectronics Key Laboratory of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210097,China
Keywords:
traffic volum e;  forecasting;  GreyM arkov
PACS:
U491.113
DOI:
-
Abstract:
G rey m ode l is fit to fo recast the or ig ina l da ta series var ied by exponent rules, andM arkovm ode l is suitable for forecasting dynam ic process w ith large stochasticwave. Com bin ing g reym odelw ithM arkovm ode l can obta in G reyM arkov forecasting mode,l wh ich emp loys the advantag es o f both m ethods and im proves the forecasting prec ision further. Th is hybr id model firstly used GM ( 1, 1) to forecast the raw data, then app liedM arkovm ode l to forecast relative error ser ies, a t last used the fo recasting re la tive e rror data to am end GM ( 1, 1) result. So th ism ethod has a h igh pred ic ting prec ision. G reyM arkov fo recasting m ode lw as em ployed to forecast rea l tim e traffic vo lum e o f an intersec tion in Suzhou c ity. The examp le showed that fo recasting resu lts we re in good ag reement w ith the measured da ta, and them odel had overm atched simp lex GM ( 1, 1). The tra ffic vo lume forecasting based on G reyM arkov model is o f valid ity and feasib ility.

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Last Update: 2013-04-23