|Table of Contents|

GKSIM Based Controlled Simulation and Prediction on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Jiangsu Province(PDF)

《南京师大学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

Issue:
2011年04期
Page:
116-121
Research Field:
地理学
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
GKSIM Based Controlled Simulation and Prediction on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Jiangsu Province
Author(s):
Yang Dianhua
Key Laboratory of 3D Information Acquisition and Application of Ministry of Education,Capital Normal University,Beijing 100048,China
Keywords:
land usedynamic changeGKSIM modelsimulationprediction
PACS:
F301;P208
DOI:
-
Abstract:
Based on the dynamic variation of the main driving forces and their contributions to land use change,GKSIM model was applied to the controlled simulation and prediction on the dynamic change of land use in Jiangsu province in order to explore future land use tendency under the influence of the main factors: GDP,population and industrial structure. The results indicated that cultivated land and construction land changed most markedly with the growth of GDP and population which manifested as the two respects: cultivated land had a decreasing trend and decreased most than other kinds of land while construction land had an increasing trend and increased most. The main reasons were as follows: the rapid economic development of Jiangsu province led to rapid industrialization and construction land were increased by occupying great amounts of cultivated land. The prediction of the relationship between the three main driving forces ( GDP, total population and industrial structure) and land use change could effectively avoid multistep error produced by projection on the time dimension and display the land use dynamic change in Jiangsu province.

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Last Update: 2013-03-21