|Table of Contents|

Effect of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in the Source Area of the Yangtze River(PDF)

《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

Issue:
2022年04期
Page:
81-90
Research Field:
生态学
Publishing date:

Info

Title:
Effect of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in the Source Area of the Yangtze River
Author(s):
Qi Xuejiao1; Yang Ying1; Han Chuannan1; Li Jianming1; Li Jiajun1; Liu Zenghui1; Li Mengyuan2; Zhang Xiuzhi2; Bao Wenjin2; Lu Sujin1; He Yi1; Li Y
(1.College of Ecological and Environmental Engineering,Qinghai University,Xi'ning 810016,China)
(2.College of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry,Qinghai University,Xi'ning 810016,China)
Keywords:
the source area of the Yangtze River; climate change; surface runoff; CMIP5; RCPS; SWAT model
PACS:
P467; P333.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2022.04.012
Abstract:
The impact of climate change on surface runoff in the source area of the Yangtze River is studied to provide a basis for water resources development and protection in the source area of the Yangtze River. Based on the surface runoff data from 1980 to 2021,the linear regression method is used to analyze the inter- and intra-annual trends of surface runoff,and the simulation results of 21 models in the CMIP5 model are used to predict the future(2022-2100)trends of surface runoff in the Yangtze source area River under three climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)of RCPS and coupled with the SWAT model. The results show that the interannual variation of surface runoff from 1980 to 2021 is large,and the interannual runoff is the largest in 2009,with an overall increasing trend,the surface runoff increases from March to July,decreases gradually from July to December,and is stable from December to March. The correlation between precipitation and runoff was significant(P<0.05)in all years except for 1980-1982 and 1983-1985,correlation was not significant. The established SWAT model was used to simulate in the source area of the Yangtze River. The coefficient of determination for the rate period was 0.81,the error between the simulated runoff and the measured runoff was 6.44%,and the coefficient of determination for the verification period was 0.86 and the error was 4.60% higher,the SWAT model is more applicable in the source area of the Yangtze River. Under the three climate scenarios,the interannual variability of surface runoff is large,and the overall trend is decreasing,the maximum runoff is in 2048 under RCP2.6,2035 under RCP4.5,and 2036 under RCP8.5. Under the three climate scenarios,surface runoff varies greatly within the year and is unevenly distributed within the year,with runoff increasing from March to August,decreasing from August to December,and remaining stable from December to March; runoff varies the most in RCP4.5 and the least in RCP8.5. Under the future climate scenario,the runoff in the source area of the Yangtze River will decrease,and it is urgent to strengthen water conservation.

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Last Update: 2022-12-15