[1]方叶林,吴燕妮,王秋月,等.基于DPSIR模型的城市旅游经济韧性评价与影响因素——以长三角城市群为例[J].南京师大学报(自然科学版),2024,(02):26-34.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2024.02.004]
　Fang Yelin,Wu Yanni,Wang Qiuyue,et al.Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Tourism Economic Resilience Based on DPSIR Model:a Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration[J].Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition),2024,(02):26-34.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2024.02.004]
点击复制

基于DPSIR模型的城市旅游经济韧性评价与影响因素——以长三角城市群为例()
分享到：

《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》[ISSN:1001-4616/CN:32-1239/N]

卷:
期数:
2024年02期
页码:
26-34
栏目:
地理学
出版日期:
2024-06-15

文章信息/Info

Title:
Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Tourism Economic Resilience Based on DPSIR Model:a Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
文章编号:
1001-4616(2024)02-0026-09
作者:
方叶林1; 吴燕妮1; 王秋月1; 王 芳2
(1.安徽大学商学院,安徽 合肥 230601)
(2.安徽城市管理职业学院商贸管理学院,安徽 合肥 230011)
Author(s):
Fang Yelin1; Wu Yanni1; Wang Qiuyue1; Wang Fang2
(1.School of Business,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)
(2.School of Business Management,Anhui Vocational College of City Management,Hefei 230011,China)
关键词:
旅游经济系统; 韧性; DPSIR模型; 长三角城市群; 面板分位数回归
Keywords:
tourism economic system; resilience; DPSIR model; the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration; panel quantile regression
分类号:
K902
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-4616.2024.02.004
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于DPSIR模型构建旅游经济韧性指标体系,对2009—2021年长三角城市群旅游经济韧性水平进行测度,并分析其演化特征与影响因素,以期为旅游经济韧性提升提供一定决策依据. 结果表明:长三角城市群旅游经济韧性呈现“先升后降”的变化趋势,各城市韧性水平整体上呈上升趋势. 韧性较高城市主要分布在中东部地区,各城市旅游经济韧性水平间具有一定空间集聚特征. 旅游经济韧性受经济发展水平、经济发展结构、旅游发展速度、游客承载量、教育水平、基础设施和政府干预等因素的综合影响,其中旅游发展速度对旅游经济韧性具有明显负面影响,其他因素均具有显著促进作用.
Abstract:
Based on DPSIR model,the index system of tourism economic resilience is constructed to measure the level of tourism economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2009 to 2021,and its evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors are analyzed in order to provide certain decision-making basis for improving the tourism economic resilience. The results show that the tourism economic resilience in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents a changing trend of first rising and then decreasing,and the resilience level of all cities is on the rise as a whole. The cities with high resilience are mainly distributed in the middle east region,and the tourism economic resilience of each city has a certain spatial agglomeration characteristic. Tourism economic resilience is comprehensively affected by factors such as economic development level,economic development structure,tourism development speed,tourist carrying capacity,education level,infrastructure and government intervention. Among them,tourism development speed has a significant negative impact on tourism economic resilience,while other factors have significant promoting effects.

参考文献/References:

[1]席建超,刘孟浩. 中国旅游业基本国情分析[J]. 自然资源学报,2019,34(8):1569-1580.
[2]杨秀平,贾云婷,翁钢民,等. 城市旅游环境系统韧性的系统动力学研究:以兰州市为例[J]. 旅游科学,2020,34(2):23-40.
[3]HOLLING C S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems[J]. Annual review of ecology and systematics,1973,4:1-23.
[4]ADGER W N. Social and ecological resilience:Are they related?[J]. Progress in human geography,2000,24(3):347-364.
[5]REGGIANI A,DE GRAAFF T,NIJKAMP P. Resilience:an evolutionary approach to spatial economic systems[J]. Networks and spatial economics,2002,2(2):211-229.
[6]方叶林,吴燕妮,黄震方,等. 中国大陆入境旅游产业演化与韧性研究[J]. 经济地理,2023,43(1):188-196.
[7]DAVOUDI S. Resilience:a bridging concept or a dead end?[J]. Planning theory and practice,2012,13(2):299-307.
[8]叶欣梁,何一,孙瑞红. 脆弱与反脆弱:旅游业韧性研究进展与述评[J]. 旅游学刊,2023,38(10):31-48.
[9]CELLINI R,CUCCIA T. The economic resilience of tourism industry in Italy:What the ‘great recession' data show[J]. Tourism management perspectives,2015,16:346-356.
[10]苏飞,张平宇. 基于集对分析的大庆市经济系统脆弱性评价[J]. 地理学报,2010,65(4):454-464.
[11]王群,陆林,杨兴柱. 旅游地社会-生态子系统恢复力比较分析:以浙江省淳安县为例[J]. 旅游学刊,2016,31(2):116-126.
[12]ZENKER S,KOCK F. The coronavirus pandemic:a critical discussion of a tourism research agenda[J]. Tourism management,2020,81:104-164.
[13]魏敏,魏海湘,黄海玉. 疫情下旅游经济韧性与高质量发展[J]. 旅游学刊,2022,37(9):5-7.
[14]孙业红,宋雨新. 从韧性看可持续旅游发展[J]. 旅游学刊,2021,36(5):8-10.
[15]陈娅玲,杨新军. 旅游社会-生态系统及其恢复力研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(11):205-211.
[16]马慧强,廉倩文,论宇超,等. 基于BP神经网络的旅游经济系统脆弱性省际空间分异[J]. 资源科学,2019,41(12):2248-2261.
[17]MARTIN R. Regional economic resilience,hysteresis and recessionary shocks[J]. Journal of economic geography,2012,12(1):1-32.
[18]方叶林,王秋月,黄震方,等. 中国旅游经济韧性的时空演化及影响机理研究[J]. 地理科学进展,2023,42(3):417-427.
[19]庞冬彦,赵林,于伟,等. 山东省旅游经济系统的韧性测度与障碍因素分析[J]. 资源与产业,2021,23(3):50-59.
[20]王倩,赵林,于伟,等. 中国旅游经济系统韧性的时空变化特征与影响因素分析[J]. 地理与地理信息科学,2020,36(6):113-118.
[21]ANGULO A M,MUR J,TRIVEZ F J. Measuring resilience to economic shocks:an application to Spain[J]. The annals of regional science,2018,60(2):349-373.
[22]薛明月,王成新,赵金丽,等. 黄河流域旅游经济空间分异格局及影响因素[J]. 经济地理,2020,40(4):19-27.
[23]崔文静,薛涛. 粤港澳大湾区旅游产业经济韧性影响因素研究[J]. 特区经济,2021(12):26-32.
[24]XIAO Q L,TIAN C,WANG Y J,et al. Measurement and comparison of urban haze governance level and efficiency based on the DPSIR model:a case study of 31 cities in North China[J]. Journal of resources and ecology,2020,11(6):549-561.
[25]李雪铭,刘凯强,田深圳,等. 基于DPSIR模型的城市人居环境韧性评价:以长三角城市群为例[J]. 人文地理,2022,37(1):54-62.
[26]崔凤军,刘家明,李巧玲. 旅游承载力指数及其应用研究[J]. 旅游学刊,1998(3):41-44.
[27]覃方铭,叶文,马月伟. 基于DPSIR-TOPSIS模型的石林旅游可持续发展评价[J]. 西部林业科学,2016,45(3):142-148.
[28]白立敏,修春亮,冯兴华,等. 中国城市韧性综合评估及其时空分异特征[J]. 世界地理研究,2019,28(6):77-87.
[29]KOENKER R. Quantile regression for longitudinal data[J]. Journal of multivariate analysis,2004,91(1):74-89.
[30]穆学青,郭向阳,明庆忠,等. 黄河流域旅游生态安全的动态演变特征及驱动因素[J]. 地理学报,2022,77(3):714-735.
[31]孙久文,陈超君,孙铮. 黄河流域城市经济韧性研究和影响因素分析:基于不同城市类型的视角[J]. 经济地理,2022,42(5):1-10.
[32]祝晔,殷红卫. 区域产业结构高级化对旅游经济的时空影响[J]. 南京师大学报(自然科学版),2021,44(3):77-83.
[33]张佩,孙勇. 新基建与产业升级耦合协调发展的空间格局及影响因素[J]. 长江流域资源与环境,2023,32(3):464-477.
[34]徐圆,邓胡艳. 多样化、创新能力与城市经济韧性[J]. 经济学动态,2020(8):88-104.
[35]李亚,翟国方. 我国城市灾害韧性评估及其提升策略研究[J]. 规划师,2017,33(8):5-11.
[36]ASSAF A,SCUDERI R. COVID-19 and the recovery of the tourism industry[J]. Tourism economics,2020,26(5):731-733.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2023-03-24.
基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(42171238、42271272)、安徽省自然科学基金面上项目(2108085MD125).
通讯作者:方叶林,博士,副教授,研究方向:旅游地理与区域经济. E-mail:fangyelin2006@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-15